It's here. The weekend you've had circled for weeks. The biggest series for the Yankees since the 2012 ALCS starts tonight. Toronto will come in with a 1.5 game lead in the division after both teams dropped two of three to sub-.500 division opponents earlier in the week so nobody is firing on all cylinders.
By now you know the story. The Yanks held a commanding seven game lead in the division on July 28th. They looked like the best team in baseball. Scoring a billion runs a game, getting good starting pitching from a full and healthy rotation and locking down games from the 7th inning on every single night. Then the deadline came. To everyone's surprise the Blue Jays became the biggest buyers and the Yankees stood pat, refusing to part ways with their top prospects. Toronto nabbed the two crown jewels of the trade market in David Price and Troy Tulowitzki while the Yankee roster depleted. Michael Pineda would go down with a forearm injury, the aging tandem of A-Rod and Teixeira would see their production drop off considerably and all of the sudden the entire complexion of the American League East had changed.
By now you know the story. The Yanks held a commanding seven game lead in the division on July 28th. They looked like the best team in baseball. Scoring a billion runs a game, getting good starting pitching from a full and healthy rotation and locking down games from the 7th inning on every single night. Then the deadline came. To everyone's surprise the Blue Jays became the biggest buyers and the Yankees stood pat, refusing to part ways with their top prospects. Toronto nabbed the two crown jewels of the trade market in David Price and Troy Tulowitzki while the Yankee roster depleted. Michael Pineda would go down with a forearm injury, the aging tandem of A-Rod and Teixeira would see their production drop off considerably and all of the sudden the entire complexion of the American League East had changed.
In the six weeks since the deadline Toronto has won 26 of 35 while scoring seemingly 10 runs a game and the once comfortable lead the Yankees held atop the division has vanished into thin air. Their once potent offense has become erratic at best since the calendar turned to August and they've lost not only their winningest pitcher but their most productive offensive player for at the very least the rest of the regular season. Brian Cashman was forced to call on two of his untouchable blue-chippers, a 21-year-old fireballer and a 22-year-old first baseman to help alleviate an ailing roster and they've both answered the bell. Severino's been their best, most reliable starter since he got on a major league mound and Greg Bird has performed admirably since being thrown into the fire as the everyday starter following Teixeira's injury.
Severino and David Price headline the most compelling pitching match-up of the series tonight. The Blue Jay's hired gun was a player for whom Cashman refused to part ways with his top pitching prospect. Six weeks later the two find themselves squaring off against one another. Price has solidified that rotation and been absolutely lights out since joining Toronto, most notably in his two starts against the Yankees. Severino was tossing a gem a few weeks ago against the Blue Jays up in Rogers Center before Beltran lost the ball in the sun, opening the door to a three-run inning that eventually cost the Yankees the game. Tonight I have all of the faith in the world in Luis. He hasn't given me one reason to think this moment will be too big for him. Every time he's faced adversity he's come right back and attacked. He's going to give an outstanding effort tonight. Mark it down. If the Yankees lose it's not going to be because of him.
The Yanks will see Estrada, Stroman and Dickey the rest of the way. It's yet to be announced but in all likelihood you're going to get Pineda and Nova in some order on Saturday followed by Tanaka on four-days rest on Sunday. The rain-out last night limits the flexibility as to when you can use Betances and Miller with two games being played tomorrow so before the first pitch has even been thrown the most powerful weapon the Yankees have has been hindered.
Obviously everyone's been scoreboard watching for weeks but the bottom line is these four games and the three game series in Toronto later this month are going to decide who's going to win the division and who's going to be fighting for their life in a coin-flip, one-game-playoff. The Blue Jays are the better team. You know it, I know it. This team doesn't just score a lot. They hit deafening, booming home runs at will. The kind that shake your confidence and wreck games. That's the team that's showing up in the Bronx tonight. I don't know which Yankee team will. They've been as good and as bad as any team in baseball. If they hit or more importantly hit when it counts, they can take every game this weekend. There isn't a doubt in my mind. But if the same lineup that couldn't handle Kevin Gausman and Ubaldo Jimenez is in the ballpark tonight then we may be paying more attention to what's going on in Texas than Toronto come Monday.
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